Journal of Conference Abstracts

Dynamic Self-organized Criticality and Predictability in a Hierarchical System of Seismicity

Mikhail Shnirman (shnir@mitp.rssi.ru)¹, Elena Blanter (blanter@ium.ips.ras.ru)¹, Jean-Louis Le Mouel² & C. Allègre²

¹International Institute of Earthquake, Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Varshavskoe sh., 79 korp 2, Moscow, 113556, Russia

²Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, pl. Jussieu, 4, Tour 24, Paris, Cedex 05, 75252, France

A hierarchical system of blocks moving in two orthogonal directions is considered. Basic properties of seismic process are observed in the behavior of the model: the Gutenberg-Richter power law of the magnitude-frequency relation; the foreshock and the aftershock activity; The Omori law of the aftershock decay; the intermittency of periods with high and low seismic activity; chaotic properties of the temporal distribution of strong events. The predictability of events of the highest scale is investigated in the model. It is shown, that the predictability reflects inner parameters of modeling: predictable and unpredictable artificial catalogs are obtained. It is observed, that for fixed parameters of the model strong temporal variations of the predictability may be obtained. Relations between the predictability and chaotic properties of the temporal distribution of strong events are investigated. Possible applications of obtained results to the evaluation of the earthquake prediction are discussed.